I’m not going to offer congratulations or anything like that. Tonight’s election result is a worse outcome than I could possibly have imagined. The Liberal/National coalition led by John Howard has been returned to office with an increased majority.

Most disturbingly, there is a distinct possibility that the government could gain control of 50% of the seats in the senate. This would give Howard, certainly in his eyes, a mandate to pursue his neo-conservative post-Menzian vision for Australia to the hilt.

Malcolm Turnbull has made it into parliament, and that changes the dynamics of the post-Howard succession somewhat. The only frontbencher of consequence likely to lose his seat is Larry Anthony.

That’s democracy. Yes it is. But there is no doubt that this election, as with the one in 2001, have been fought on false pretences and on a limited range of issues. The overseas media has seen this election as a referendum on Iraq. The truth is that Iraq, and foreign policy in general, was swept under the carpet by both major parties and by a compliant media. This was a victory for Rupert Murdoch, Kerry Packer, John Laws and Alan The Parrot Jones.

In net terms, the ALP gained less than 0.1 per cent on their primary vote in 2001. They look like scoring about 38% of the primary vote, and I have heard more than one Labor Party heavyweight say tonight that they can’t win government unless their vote percentage has a 4 at the beginning.

Considering how badly they were struggling under Simon Crean last year, the ALP has still made a heck of an improvement from their standing in 2003. Mark Latham, while inexperienced, erratic, and individualist, is at times the most breathtakingly audacious politician I have seen in this country since, well, since Gough Whitlam.

There were a few flaws in the Labor Party campaign for this election. They were sucked in to an obscene multi-billion dollar policy auction that ultimately must have proved more counterproductive for them than for the Liberals. They didn’t focus enough on the failings of the government in economic management over the past eight years. There wasn’t enough comparison made between interest rates in Australia and interest rates in the UK, US and Europe. There wasn’t enough attention given to Howard’s failings in industrial development.

And his government’s outrageous conduct in foreign and humanitarian policy failed to strike a nerve with “middle” Australia. As a nation, we’re still xenophobic rednecks at heart. Hawke and Keating tried to change that. Howard has unravelled all of their good work since 1996.

We don’t know for sure yet if the Libs and Nats will reach the magic figure of 38 in the 76-seat Senate. While support for the ALP has remained static since 2001, we have seen in this election a shift in support from One Nation, almost as a solid bloc, back to the Coalition. Hansonism is dead, but only because Howardism has taken it on board.

The Democrats seem to be a spent force, victims of too much implosion over the past decade. Their voters have moved in two opposite directions - to The Greens, and to Family First. The latter seems to have shut the door on Fred Nile to assert itself as the fundamentalist Christian party of our time, the contemporary DLP if you will.

The Greens, while losing their sole representative in the lower house, are likely to do well in the senate, hopefully well enough to hold the balance of power. Their challenge for the future lies with their internal discipline as a political party, something the post-Janine Haines Democrats were unable to master.

I am very sad about the outcome of this election. A narrow majority for the Libs I could have accepted, an increased majority is deeply disappointing. I feel a sense of pessimism tonight about the future direction of this country. If Latham, or whoever is leading the ALP, is successful at the next opportunity, probably in late 2007, how much damage to our national fibre will there be to repair?

I don’t feel sorry for the 46.5% of the electorate who voted Liberal or National today. I feel sorry for the rest of us. I want an Australia for my daughter and for all the children of this country that is inclusive, diversive, peaceful, healthy and socially rewarding. John Howard’s retrograde vision won’t provide that.

Iron Chef Chinese has won the Bamboo Shoots Battle. Shane Warne is one off Murali’s world record and stands a great chance of gaining it in his own right tomorrow. And we have a new niece, born in Adelaide this afternoon.

Now back to that bloody election.

The Greens challenge is over in the lower house. It just remains to be seen how they do in the Senate.

They have lost the Wollongong seat of Cunningham, coming third with 20% of the primary vote. They’ve come third in Grayndler, also with 20% of the primary vote. Jenny Leong had high hopes of beating the talented Tanya Plibersek in Sydney, but has also finished third at 22%. They also had hopes of knocking off Lindsay Tanner in Melbourne, but he succeeded in picking up most of the former Democrat vote. The Greens came third here as well, with 19%.

Jennie George gained votes in Throsby. Goodness knows why. On the subject of dinosaur ex-ACTU presidents, Simon Crean has been returned in Hotham. There’s only one Bob Hawke.

The three independents have all been returned: Peter Andren in Calare, Tony Windsor in New England, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.

Malcolm Turnbull has gained Wentworth after a very acrimonious campaign. Incumbent Peter King has come third with 17%.

Mark Latham has gained ground in Werriwa, scoring 34% of the primary. The Greens’ decision to field an 18 year-old in this seat has backfired big time. Ben Raue has registered about 3%.

Kim Beazley has lost ground in Brand, but he will probably hang in there. Ross Cameron is rooted in Parramatta. Larry Anthony looks to be in serious trouble in Richmond, and would be the only cabinet member to lose his seat if that happens.

Latest call by the ABC is a Coalition majority of 24. It’s all a very disappointing result, and Mark Latham is about to concede defeat at 9.42pm.

Labor does not seem to be making any ground on the Coalition. If anything, the Libs have gained votes, although this does appear to be in direct proportion to the votes One Nation has lost. The rednecks are back home again. The Democrats have been decimated, their vote seems to be shared between the Greens and Family First, ie, chalk and cheese.

Currently the ABC are saying that the Libs have picked up four seats from Labor (Greenway, Bass, Braddon, Wakefield), while Labor have regained Cunningham from the Greens, who will be unrepresented in the lower house. They are calling a Coalition majority of 20. Bloody hell.

Albo has won Grayndler for the fourth time, and it looks like he won’t need preferences. Currently on 52%, a +3 swing. Steph Kokkolis has improved on Brett Kenworthy’s 2001 vote for Libs to 24%. Philip Myers has polled 21% for the Greens. The invisible Jen Harrison has 2% for the Democrats, a -7 swing. The Socialist Alliance display their continuing irrelevance at 1.2%.

John Howard is back in Bennelong, albeit with a -3.5% swing. Andrew Wilkie has 17% of the vote at this stage.

Labor has regained Cunningham from the Greens. Sharon Bird has 39% of the primary vote. Sitting member Michael Organ whose win in the 2002 by-election was, let’s face it, an aberration, is around 21% in third place.

As expected, Peter Garrett has pissed it in in Kingsford-Smith, twenty years after his failed bid for the Senate for the Nuclear Disarmament Party. He has given the ALP a +1.5 swing over Laurie Brereton’s vote in 2001.

“Ross Cameron: Rooting for Parramatta” read the sign at Chinnaswamy Stadium on Thursday. He’s not rooted yet, but it will be close.

I’ve given up watching the election telecast for now, the Bamboo Shoots Battle has begun.

The polls haven’t closed in West Australia yet, but I think we can call this already as a Coalition win - and possibly with an increased majority.

But there’s an interesting stat I’ve noticed. The Liberals have a swing of 3.3% on latest figures nationwide. The One Nation Party has a negative swing of 3.3%.

Wonder why….

India are crap - 19 for 3 just before tea to be precise (though Sehwag was out lbw to an inside edge). The Solomon Islands got flogged by the Socceroos 5-1, and Tasmania’s showing a swing to the Libs. It’s early days, but this doesn’t look good.

Live updates on the election at the ABC, Sydney Morning Herald (curious URL that), and the Australian Electoral Commission’s Virtual Tally Room. Live audio at ABC Newsradio.

The count has started. Polls closed in Tasmania at 5pm AEST. They’ll close in NSW, Queensland, Victoria and the ACT at 6, SA and Northern Territory at 6.30, WA at 8.

My head says the Coalition will win by about 5 seats. My heart says Labor will win by any number. I’m giving the casting vote to my pancreas.

And the pancreatic verdict? It will be a hung parliament. Howard will be returned with a minority government supported by independents, who will abandon him for Labor after about three months.

Bewildering night ahead. The Kerry and Maxine show on the ABC from 6, the Bamboo Shoots Battle is on Iron Chef at 8.30, and India need 458 to win the First Test.

Hang on to your proverbials!

October 8, 10:55 pm.
http://www.empirenotes.org/#08oct047
October 8, 10:55 pm. Apparently, the scales remain firmly in place. ABC News, polling a rather small group that was 35% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Independent, got results of 44% thinking Kerry had won, 41% Bush, and 13% a tie. The fact that neither Bush nor Cheney has answered a single one of even the feeble attacks levied by Kerry and Edwards on how they have conducted the occupation seems n …

Peace Prize goes green
http://www.greenpeace.org/international_en/news/details?item_id=610897
Wangari Maathai has planted tens of millions of trees, opposed genetically modified organisms and titanium mining in her native Kenya, and won numerous awards for her environmental activism. She has also been beaten, harassed, and imprisoned for her work. For the first time in history, the Nobel Committee has recognised the war on planet Earth by conferring upon her the Nobel Peace prize.

Italy and Switzerland Requested Indymedia’s Server Seizure
http://www.indymedia.org/or/2004/10/112047.shtml

I meant to do this earlier in the week, oh well. Now it’s halfway through polling day in the eastern states.

In broad terms, I am advocating an above-the-line vote in the Senate in each state for The Greens. They, and the Democrats, have demonstrated their value as minorities in the Senate holding the balance of power. The Democrats, while looking good on their policy documents, have imploded over the past couple of years, perhaps fatally.

In the House of Representatives, I am advocating a vote for the Australian Labor Party, with certain exceptions as follows:

New South Wales:
Bennelong: Andrew Wilkie (Greens) (sitting member: John Winston Howard)
Blaxland: Marlene Marquez-Obeid (Greens) (sitting member: Michael Hatton, ALP. This was Paul Keating’s seat from 1969 to 1996)
Bradfield: Robert Goodwill (Greens) (sitting member: Brendon Nelson. The Labor candidate, Neil Neelam, is a 20 year-old uni student)
Calare: Peter Andren (Independent, and the sitting member)
Cunningham: Michael Organ (Greens, and the sitting member)
Shortland: Bob Phillips (Greens) (sitting member: Jill Hall, ALP. Disclosure: Bob Phillips was English/History master at Swansea High School when I was a student there 1971-76)
Throsby: Trevor Jones (Greens) (sitting member: Jennie George, ALP - the former ACTU president who has become invisible since entering parliament in 1998)
Wentworth: Mithra Cox (Greens) (sitting member: Peter King, disendorsed Liberal running as an independent. If Lindy Morrison (Democrats) had been willing to admit in her CV on the party’s website that she had been drummer for the Go-Betweens she would have been my choice. Sigh… was there anything I could do?)

Queensland:
Fairfax: David Norris (Greens) (sitting member: Alex Somlyay, Liberal. The ALP candidate is Ivan Molloy).

Tasmania:
Braddon: Michelle Foale (Greens) (sitting member: Sid Sidebottom, ALP)

Victoria:
Higgins: Robert Trafficante (Greens) (sitting member: Peter Costello)
Hotham: Kiera Perrott (Greens) (sitting member: Simon Crean, who should have retired while the going was good)
Indi: Jenny O’Connor (Greens) (sitting member: Sophie Panopoulos, Liberal)